The CEO of Tesla emphasizes the necessity for infrastructure to evolve alongside the demands of advancing technology as he pursues investment for his own startup.
Elon Musk had previously suggested AI would surpass human intelligence by 2029 © AP
Elon Musk predicts that the capabilities of new artificial intelligence models will surpass human intelligence by the end of next year, provided that the supply of electricity and hardware can meet the demands of this increasingly powerful technology.
Speaking during an interview with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur behind Tesla, X, and SpaceX, stated, “My guess is that we’ll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.” He further projected that within the next five years, AI capabilities will likely exceed those of all humans.
Musk has long been optimistic about the advancement of artificial general intelligence (AGI), envisioning AI tools that are so potent they can outperform the most capable individuals across various domains. His latest prediction, however, outpaces previous forecasts, such as his prediction last year that “full” AGI would be achieved by 2029. Notably, some of Musk’s ambitious projections, including the widespread adoption of self-driving Teslas and the successful landing of a rocket on Mars, remain unrealized.
Recent AI breakthroughs, such as advancements in video generation tools and more sophisticated chatbots, have propelled the frontier of AI forward at a faster pace than anticipated. While Demis Hassabis, co-founder of Google’s DeepMind, earlier suggested that AGI could be attained by 2030.
Despite progress, the development of AI has been hindered by supply chain bottlenecks, particularly in microchip production, notably those manufactured by Nvidia, crucial for training and operating AI models. Musk noted that while these constraints are easing, the focus is shifting to other data center equipment and the availability of electricity.
Musk’s enthusiasm for advancing AI contrasts with his previous calls for caution. Last year, he advocated for a halt in advanced AI development, citing potential risks to society and humanity. He called for a pause on training any system more powerful than OpenAI’s GPT-4, the leading model in the market.
However, on Monday, Musk revealed that his own AI startup, xAI, is currently training a second version of its model Grok, which is expected to surpass GPT-4. He anticipates its completion by May, followed by the development of a new model that will be significantly more powerful.
Over the past year, Elon Musk has redirected more time and resources towards xAI, aiming to raise billions of dollars from investors in the US, Middle East, and Hong Kong. This move is in an effort to compete with OpenAI, with sources familiar with the matter indicating that the funding round could potentially value xAI at $18 billion.
Musk has been a prominent figure in the development of new AI tools over the last decade, often playing a central and sometimes controversial role. He co-founded OpenAI in 2015 but departed from the company in 2018 following disagreements with CEO and co-founder Sam Altman regarding research direction.
In March, Musk filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and Altman, alleging breach of contract. He claimed that they had compromised the startup’s stated mission of developing AI for the betterment of humanity, an accusation vehemently denied by OpenAI.
