Commerzbank economists suggest that any substantial momentum in EUR/USD is expected to originate from the Dollar side.
The attainment of the 1.0900 mark is contingent on a series of weaker US data unfolding successively.
Today’s agenda includes the ISM index for services. A potential scenario of the EUR/USD making another attempt at the 1.0900 mark could materialize if the ISM services index turns out to be weaker than anticipated.
If a series of weaker data unfolds throughout the week, there is a growing likelihood that the prevailing perspective could shift towards expecting a somewhat turbulent landing. Despite being reasonably successful, it might result in minor disruptions here and there. In such a scenario, the 1.0900 mark may be tested.
Nonetheless, an alternate scenario exists: the US labor market, a significant data influencer, may sustain its strength, thus supporting the notion of a gentle economic slowdown. This would imply that neither the Federal Reserve nor the market needs to revise their interest rate expectations, allowing the USD to maintain its strength.
Adding another element to the EUR/USD dynamics, the ECB meeting is scheduled for Thursday. While our experts anticipate no significant surprises that might disrupt the June theory, unexpected events are always a possibility. Life is unpredictable, so perhaps this week in EUR/USD won’t be as uneventful as it appears at the moment.
