Home » EUR/USD drifts into topside resistance zone with rate cut bets pinned

EUR/USD drifts into topside resistance zone with rate cut bets pinned

by FX BrokerNews
  • EUR/USD finds chart paper near 1.0850.
  • European investor confidence recovered on Monday.
  • US NFP employment to be key data print this week.

EUR/USD moved towards the higher end at the start of the trading week on Monday, hovering around 1.0860 and encountering resistance from near-term technical levels. The pair has maintained a rangebound pattern for a week, with investor attention turning to crucial US labor data as the market assesses the potential actions of the Federal Reserve.

Central banks play a significant role in influencing the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD) this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before the US Congress’ House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and Thursday, providing insights into the Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its latest rate decision during Thursday’s European market session.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD churns in familiar territory as traders await key data

  • Sentix Investor Confidence for March in Europe increased to -10.5 from the previous -12.9, reaching its highest point in 11 months.
  • Significant data releases commence on Wednesday, with European Retail Sales for January anticipated to decrease to 1.3% year-on-year (YoY), contrasting with the previous -0.8%, reflecting the ongoing economic slowdown in Europe.
  • The anticipated US ADP Employment Change figures on Wednesday are projected to rise to 150,000, marking an increase from the previous 107,000, serving as a precursor to Friday’s release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.
  • The European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate announcement on Thursday is widely anticipated to maintain the main refinancing rate at 4.5%.
  • Investors are seeking weakened US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor data to increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
  • The projected outlook for Tuesday’s US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) anticipates a decrease to 53.0 from the previous 53.4.

Euro price today

The following table illustrates the percentage change of the Euro (EUR) against various major currencies today. The Euro demonstrated its strength, particularly against the [currency not specified].

Technical analysis: EUR/USD trapped in consolidation as investors await Fed moves

On Monday, EUR/USD ascended to 1.0860, touching well-known technical thresholds and maintaining a position on the higher end of short-term consolidation. The pair is oscillating within a horizontal range, moving between 1.0860 and the 1.0800 level.

The absence of a discernible trend in daily candlesticks results in the EUR/USD being engulfed by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0830. Although there has been a 1.5% increase from the recent swing low to 1.0700, the pair still registers a 2.6% decline from the peak bids near 1.1140 in December.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart

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