- Strong stock market performance to start a year has historically favored incumbent presidential candidates seeking reelection, according to Ned Davis Research.
- This has been especially true for Democrats, the firm said.
- The S&P 500 is up roughly 8% so far in 2024.
The robust rally witnessed in the stock market during the initial two months of 2024 is seen as a positive indicator for President Joe Biden’s potential re-election in November.
Ed Clissold, a strategist at Ned Davis Research, points out that historically, a strong start to the year for stocks tends to favor incumbent victories, especially for Democrats. The S&P 500’s nearly 8% surge this year, building on last year’s momentum driven by factors like continued disinflation, anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and solid economic growth, contributes to this optimistic outlook.
While acknowledging that a two-month stock market performance isn’t a definitive predictor of a presidential election, Clissold suggests that a rising stock market ahead of the November election could signal a thriving economy and improved consumer confidence. Such a backdrop may provide a favorable tailwind to Biden’s re-election chances, considering the broader economic context.
However, it’s essential to recognize that numerous factors influence voters’ decisions, and this early indicator is just one facet of the complex electoral landscape.
